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What The Liberal-NDP Deal Announcement Could Mean for Ontario

Last week's announcement by Canada's Liberal and NDP Federal parties to join forces has set Queen's Park ablaze with intrigue.

It certainly seems that this announcement has not only prompted discussion federally, but provincially.

In response, last Tuesday, Ontario Premier Doug Ford's government house leader, Paul Calandra, warned that previous Liberal-NDP provincial agreements in 1985 and 2013 have led to "high debt, high taxes."

Ontario NDP Leader Andrea Horwath, doubled down on her statement that, after this June election, the party would "never ever support" a Ford minority government, but refused to voice her opinion on a joint coalition with the Ontario Liberals.

Similarly, the Ontario Liberal leader Steven Del Duca voiced similar opinions, citing that he is against forming a coalition with the PCs, and has "not spoken with Ms. Horwath about any formal or informal coalition".

With all this talk circulating, you might be wondering:

What does Federal announcement mean for Ontario's upcoming election?

To answer this question, we need to look at the history of past elections, specifically through a certain phenomenon called "Underhill balance theory".

First, the Underhill Balance Theory essentially argues that for the past 79 years, the vast majority of Ontario provincial governments have served as a counterweight to Federal governments.

For example, the majority of residents of Etobicoke North voted Progressive Conservative (PC) Doug Ford as their MPP in 2018, while returning Liberal MP Kirsty Duncan to Ottawa last Fall.

It seems evident that this polar arrangement continues to work well in Ontario.

Last Monday, Liberal PM Trudeau and PC Premier Doug Ford jointly announced an agreement to provide $10 Day Care in Ontario by September 2025.

You can expect that Ontario's Progressive Conservatives are not on the backfoot after this announcement, and have been carefully positioning themselves for the upcoming June election, by subtly pushing back the launch date of their Budget, as well as making provincial announcements lifting mask mandates, and other policies in an appeal to win voters.

To catch all the latest updates, as well as party platforms, leader profiles, and ways to vote, check out:


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